Watch for the traps at decision time

You can radically improve your decision-making if you make yourself aware of potential traps, says headteacher Chris Luck.

One of the most important functions of leadership is effective decision making. Headteachers, children’s centre managers and directors of children’s services and their senior staff are called upon to make decisions that will affect the future of young people for years to come.

But what are the barriers to making effective decisions? What stands in the way of good decision making?

Several researchers claim that people often exhibit a range of behaviours that impede decision making in a wide variety of contexts. In their book Smart Choices, John Hammond, Ralph Keeney and Howard Raiffa describe a number of psychological traps that block effective decision making. Here are some typical ‘traps’ that leaders often find themselves grappling with.

The anchoring trap

This occurs when people are unduly influenced by an initial piece of information they have been given. For example when asked the question, "Is the population of Turkey greater than 35 million?” most people will provide an estimate around the 35 million mark even though this is a purely arbitrary figure. If the number is changed to 100 million then estimates cluster around 100 million. Anchors can be quite obvious or they can be more subtle. It is possible for choices to be influenced by a comment by a colleague recently overheard or a newspaper headline.

The status quo trap

Nothing to do with the three chord rockers, this occurs when people show a strong inclination to use alternatives that merely perpetuate the current situation. People are generally disinclined to be radical in their approach. The first cars, for example, were called ‘horseless’ carriages and looked very much like their non-mechanised forebears. Another name for this trap might be the ‘play it safe’ trap. Faced with a number of options people tend to choose the one that is closest to the status quo – in other words select what they perceive as the safest option and least radical approach even if this is also the least effective option.

The sunk-cost trap

Once people have invested effort, time or money in a venture they are inclined to continue even if it becomes painfully evident that the venture is a failure. People not only invest time into a project but also their personal or even professional kudos. It can therefore be difficult for people to let go of an unsuccessful project because it is an admission of failure. Under these circumstances, people often find ways of justifying continuing with an initiative or project even when it is obvious that it is ineffective. This, of course applies to governments and local authorities just as much as it does to schools!

"By simply considering these ‘traps’ leadership teams can make their decision making more effective – and really benefit their schools."

The confirming evidence trap

People have a tendency to look for evidence that confirms a chosen path rather than actively seek evidence to the contrary. This is often a major weakness in decision making in schools. Also it is not only common for school leadership teams to ignore disconfirming information but also to misinterpret information to fit in with a chosen theory or hypothesis.

People are naturally drawn to that which confirms their beliefs. It takes active and determined effort to seek and recognise evidence that draws a different conclusion. School leaders need to check for ways in which a chosen course of action is not working as well as expected or planned.

The framing trap

Being clear about problems is crucial in avoiding wild goose chases or pursuing culs-de-sac. Perception or what is sometimes called ‘framing’ in decision making is very important. If you ask the wrong question you will get the wrong answer. Consider this joke for instance:

A young priest asked his bishop, ‘May I smoke while praying?’ The answer was an emphatic ‘No!’ Later, encountering an older priest puffing on a cigarette while praying, the younger priest scolded, 'You shouldn't be smoking while praying! I asked the bishop, and he said I couldn't’. ‘That's strange,’ the older priest replied. ‘I asked the bishop if I could pray while I'm smoking, and he told me that it was okay to pray at any time’.

The joke highlights the point that how you frame a question may be just as important as the question itself. It is important therefore that school leaders spend time considering their perceptions about an issue or problem to see if ‘reframing’ the problem provides better solutions.

The overconfidence trap

Overconfidence at the beginning of a problem-solving situation can lead to too narrow a range of opportunities. It has been suggested that people often base their predictions on a mean or average value and ignore the range of possibilities within any given scenario. This narrowing of thinking exposes people to either higher risk or missed opportunities when targets are set on a narrow average. This would suggest that generating specific targets as opposed to a range of possible outcomes is potentially misleading and ineffective. This is an interesting notion in an educational environment that is highly target driven.

The recallability trap

People have a tendency to give overdue weight to information that may be recent or lurid, leading to distorted thinking. People are often more anxious about flying after reading a newspaper account of an awful aeroplane accident for example, even though statistically flying by plane is very safe. Any event that is dramatic and therefore can be recalled quickly from memory may have an unwarranted distorting effect on decisions made.

Time is an important factor. We are more able to recall recent events, situations or information and so they tend to have more prominence than information that, although very relevant, is further back in the past. In a time of rapid change where we always seem to be chasing the latest educational fad it is important to be as objective as possible and not be overly influenced by what is new rather than what is right.

The outguessing randomness trap

People are notoriously bad at making predictions about potential future events or likelihoods. Quite often if someone has a run of bad luck they will persevere because they feel that each stroke of bad luck just confirms that the situation will soon take a turn for the better. Because people infer the chances of events happening based on their own experience (rather than by using statistical evidence), they are overly influenced by what they can remember or what has left a strong impression on them. Just because something has worked well at a school in the past does not guarantee that it will work well again, and initiatives that have been successful at another school may not be so effective when transferred to a different school.

The list of ‘traps’ presented here is not exclusive but it does give a flavour of the negative habitual thinking that often influences decision making. These barriers can be removed, or at least made less influential. By simply considering these ‘traps’ leadership teams can make their decision making more effective – and really benefit their schools.

Chris Luck is headteacher of Eastfield Primary School in Enfield.