Decision making in uncertain times

Headteacher Chris Luck says that if you understand the different types and sources of uncertainty, you can make better decisions.

School leaders have long grappled with the challenge of making decisions in uncertain conditions.

The sources of uncertainty are wide and varied. They range from outside factors such as legislation or demands and changes at local authority level, to uncertainties within the school such as sudden changes in staff or pupil numbers.

The educational environment is now so fast moving that school leaders are hard pressed to be able to predict when, where or how the next significant change is going to arise. As Jay Russo and Paul Schoemaker write in their book Winning Decisions: “Unfortunately in a world characterised by rapid change and discontinuities, decision makers are dealing not so much with trends as with surprises.”

How can school leaders make decisions that will affect the school for many years to come under such circumstances? Should they just throw up their hands in despair in the face of change and uncertainty? Surely uncertainty by definition means that nothing can be done?

“Knowing about the different types and sources of uncertainties can help you get to grips with a range of school issues.”

Well not necessarily so. Knowing about the different types and sources of uncertainties can help you get to grips with a range of school issues.

Here are six key ways in which uncertainty can make decision making in schools challenging.

1. Problems are ill-defined

Decisions in school as in real life are often part of a wider context. School leaders are often faced with many goals which may or may not be related. Some or all of these goals may be external so there can be a lack of ownership of the problem.

It is often worthwhile in these circumstances for you to look again at problems and try to identify issues and ways in which they might interact with each other. It is not always the case that what appears to be a problem for school leadership is a problem for staff or vice-versa. Problems are not always obvious. Understanding the dynamics and wider context in which a problem arises can lead to more effective problem-solving strategies in the long run.

2. Information is incomplete, ambiguous or changing

Often decisions need to be made with less information than we would like. Sometimes information is shifting or incomplete. Sometimes there are gaps in the information or we are not sure of its validity or reliability.

The obvious task here is to gather more information but in these circumstances it is important that a balance is made between the need to gather as much information as possible and the need to make a timely decision. There is always a place for gut feeling and intuition. There is rarely enough time to gather all the information that may be required and endless procrastination will just generate more problems. Sometimes intuition is all you have.

3. Decisions don’t occur in isolation

Decision making is not just a matter of making a single choice at one point in time. Rather it involves a whole series of actions or decisions each of which affects the situation in ways that have an inevitable influence on the decisions that follow. Decisions are therefore cumulative in their effect. This can create uncertainty, as it becomes difficult to predict future decisions without knowing about decisions that are yet to be made.

The answer is to take things a step at a time and develop effective communication systems that provide positive feedback loops, so that leadership teams and schools can learn and grow. Good monitoring procedures will help you and your team respond flexibly and adaptively to situations and problems that evolve over time. There is no substitute for good communication in these circumstances.

4. There’s not enough time

Often there just isn’t as much time to devote to decision making as you’d like. External agencies can set unrealistic timetables and make seemingly impossible demands. Sudden changes within a school environment demand quick decision making.

But bear in mind that having unlimited time does not automatically guarantee good decisions. Again, there is a role here for intuition. Leadership teams who really know their school and where they are going do not find quick decision making hard. As the late Walt Disney chief executive Roy Disney once said, “It’s not hard to make decisions when you know what your values are.”

5. Many people contribute to the decisions

Many decisions are made within the context of tasks performed by teams of people, not just individuals. Team members must work together towards shared goals and adapt to changes as they occur. Decision making within teams assumes high levels of communication and shared values and aspirations.

Headteachers need to make sure that their senior and middle leadership teams have clear goals and know what success is meant to look like, so that they can measure progress. They need to see the whole picture so that different teams across the school don’t end up fighting each other but work together effectively. The vision for the school needs to be understood, shared and owned by all staff.

“There’s no substitute for courage, determination and a slavish commitment to the shared vision for the school.”

6. High stakes

Sometimes very important decisions need to be made that will affect the school for many years, or pose a threat to personal identity and influence, professional kudos and even employment or promotion prospects.

Under these circumstances there is no substitute for courage, determination and a slavish commitment to the shared vision for the school. There can be few people working within the educational system who believe that the rate of change we are currently seeing is going to abate – it is more likely it will increase.

It is possible to not only respond effectively in a climate of uncertainty but also to flourish and grow. Leadership needs to respond positively to the uncertainties generated by constant change by thinking about the factors that create uncertainty and working to overcome them through shared vision, good communication and the application of intelligent intuition.

Chris Luck is headteacher of Eastfield Primary School in Enfield.